CaseStudy:puting09SwissTropicalInstituteResearch,services,andteachingandtraining,contributetotheimprovementofthehealthofpopulationsinternationallyandnationallyAssociatedwithUniversityofBasel,SwitzerlandBiostatisticsandEpidemiologygroup,DepartmentofPublicHealthandEpidemiologyDate2SimulationmodelsofmalariatransmissionandcontrolJuly2003:inesontheclinicalepidemiologyandnaturalhistoryofPlasmodiumfalciparummalariaFundedbyMVI/GSKEffectively2yearprojectJune2006:Simulationmodelingoftheepidemiologicalimpactandcost-effectivenessofmalariainterventionsFundedbyBMGF3yearprojectMarch2009:AstochasticsimulationplatformforpredictingtheeffectsofdifferentmalariainterventionstrategiesFundedbyBMGF2yearprojectDate3MalariaandmalariamodelsMalaria:amosquito-othreemilliondeathsperyearHundredsofmillionsofillnessepisodesperyear,upto40%ofhealthexpenditureindevelopingcountriesMathematicalmodelshavebeenavaluabledecisionmakingtoolinpublichealth,especiallyinfectiousdiseaseplanningBMGF’sMalERA:DemandforrationalsettingofprioritiesDate4Predictedinterventioncost-effectivenessInterventionpackageTransmissionPotentialPatternsofinfection,morbidity&mortalitywithoutinterventionBurdenofdiseasewithoutinterventionIntervention-modifiedpatternsofInfection,morbidity&mortalityIntervention-modifiedburdenofdiseaseCostsofdiseaseCostsofinterventionsSimulationmodelofmalariaepidemiologyandcontrolDate5ModelingapproachDiscretetimestochasticindividual-basedsimulationsModelsfortheeffectofacquiredimmunityonparasitedensities,fortransmissiontothevector,formorbidity,andformortality,paringsimulatedinterventionswithbaselinescenariosDate6SimulationobjectivesFittingofmodelparameterstofielddataPredictionforarangeofscenariosSensitivityanalysisDate7__________EstimatingmodelparametersesMeasureofgoodnessoffitResampleParameters(Optimizationalgorithm)esConvergenceDate8Calibration61datasetsfromfieldstudies,differentobjectives*IncidenceofinfectionAge-prevalenceofparasitemiaSeasonalityofparasitemiaAge-densityofparasitesAge-incidenceofclinicald
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